I hope you are well and enjoyed your weekend. We are entering another week of uncertainty in the market. Are we heading for stagflation (high inflation and low growth)? Is inflation slowing down? The answers to these questions will definitely impact how the market reacts and moves this week.
The Big Picture
Sentiment remains extremely bearish. Take a look at the short vs. long leveraged ETF inflows in the chart below. Compared to 4 months ago, we are far more bearish than bullish.
This is the time that the majority of the funds will release their 13F filings. These filings will give a very good snapshot of what the best money managers in the world are doing and how they are allocating their capital. From what I have been reading so far, many funds are pruning positions and raising cash. Be mindful of your position sizing and risk management in this market. In comparison to other historic bear markets, we are only at the beginning. I am by no means predicting that we are going to fall by 40% or 50%, but simply letting you know that risk management and position sizing is important.
Option Trades for the Week
As always, the setup is going to be defensive: more shorts than long, and overweight on defensive sectors and Treasuries. I believe if we do actually sell off further this week or next week, Treasuries should rally and money should flow into the safe haven assets such as Treasuries.
Tweet of the Week
This week’s tweet of the week goes to Twitter’s CEO, who used the platform to break down the bot issue in more detail and showcase its complexity. Of course, Elon used the opportunity as a chance to reply with a “poop” emoji.
While all of this is very entertaining, the question remains: Before committing over $40 billion to it, did Elon not do any due diligence to see whether or not Twitter has a bot problem?
One Last Thing:
I am also now on Twitter! Let’s connect there as well for more of a dialogue.
To your success,